The global maritime market in Q1/2025 is experiencing mixed signals: freight demand is rebounding strongly, but supply chain infrastructure struggles to keep up, leading to rising freight costs and mounting supply chain risks.

1. Demand for shipping is picking up

Following a slow 2024 due to inflation and mild global recession, international trade has shown clear signs of recovery:

• Container throughput at major ports like Shanghai, Singapore, and Rotterdam increased by 12% YoY.
• Exports of electronics and textiles from Asia (Vietnam, India, Bangladesh) to the US and EU are growing fast.
• Businesses are rebuilding inventories after a long period of cost-cutting.

2. Capacity constraints and port congestion

Despite rising demand, global shipping routes are still under stress due to:

• Shortage of large container ships as many new builds are still under construction.
• Port congestion, especially in the US and India, driven by traffic spikes.
• Delays at the Panama and Suez Canals caused by weather issues and regional instability.

3. Freight rates rise but remain below pandemic peak

Freight rates are climbing again, though still below the peak levels seen in 2021:

• Asia–US route: Rates up 25% from last quarter, now averaging $3,200/40’ container.
• Asia–EU route: Up 18%, currently between $2,600–$2,900 per container.

4. Emerging trends in maritime logistics

• Nearshoring strategies: US and EU firms are increasing imports from regional suppliers instead of China.
• Transshipment ports gain popularity: Singapore and Malaysia’s Tanjung Pelepas are being used more to reduce congestion.
• Tech-enabled tracking: AI and IoT solutions are helping real-time monitoring and reducing delays.

5. Forecast for Q2 and full-year 2025

Analysts expect continued momentum in Q2/2025, but several risks remain:

• Geopolitical threats: Red Sea and Taiwan Strait tensions may disrupt shipping lanes.
• Empty container imbalance: Some regions face shortages due to global equipment misallocation.
• Environmental regulations: IMO and EU ETS rules will drive up vessel operating costs.

6. Conclusion

The 2025 maritime market is off to a robust start but faces growing uncertainties. Exporters and importers must closely follow market developments, adopt flexible logistics strategies, and optimize transport costs to stay competitive in an increasingly complex global trade environment.